AGP Executive Report

US-Iran Diplomacy: Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir arrived in Tehran as Islamabad mediates a US proposal to end the Iran war; Iran’s foreign ministry said it’s not yet a “turning point,” while Qatar also sent a negotiation team to help push a “final deal.” EU Sanctions Push: The EU moved toward new sanctions on Iranian officials over the Hormuz blockade, expanding existing measures with travel bans and asset freezes. NATO Iraq Role: NATO is weighing a return of its Iraq mission after relocating personnel to Italy, with any comeback expected “step by step” and in a smaller format. Human Rights in Iran: Christian Solidarity Worldwide says Iran is using “cult” legislation to target religious minorities, including arrests of Baha’is and Christian leaders. Markets & Energy Mood: The Nikkei hit a record high as investors bet fighting could soon end; oil fears eased, but analysts warn the fuel crisis isn’t over. US Politics: Tulsi Gabbard resigned as Trump’s director of national intelligence, citing her husband’s cancer.

Oil Market Watch: The IEA is warning the oil market could hit a “red zone” in July-August if Middle East escalation continues, pointing to rising summer travel demand and Strait of Hormuz disruption. Diplomacy Under Pressure: Iran and the US remain stuck on uranium and Hormuz tolls, but Pakistan is pushing fresh US-Iran peace-talk proposals after Iran’s foreign minister met Pakistan’s counterpart in Tehran, with Rubio calling it “good signs” but warning a Hormuz toll system is a deal-breaker. Aviation Disruption: UAE airports are seeing delays and cancellations today, with airlines rerouting flights amid airspace restrictions affecting routes between India and the Gulf. Consumer Hit: UK retail sales fell 1.3% in April, driven by a 10.2% slump in fuel volumes as Britons cut back after Middle East-linked price spikes. Local Energy Relief: Spain’s diesel price has dipped below €1.70 a litre for the first time since March, easing pump pressure after earlier tax cuts.

Iran-US Talks: Iran says it’s reviewing a new US proposal to end the war, while Trump warns diplomacy is “borderline” and could close fast—Tehran repeats demands to lift the blockade and release frozen assets. Nuclear & Strait Standoff: Trump insists Iran must give up enriched uranium and says the Strait of Hormuz should stay open “free,” as Iran pushes back on both uranium export and tolls. Pakistan Mediation: Pakistan is stepping up to keep US-Iran talks moving, even as Iran hardens its line on the nuclear issue. Oil Shock & Markets: Gulf stocks bounced on deal hopes and firmer oil; meanwhile, Asia is bracing for an “oil shock” as currencies slide and rates rise, and analysts warn gasoline could climb sharply if Hormuz disruption worsens. Energy Resilience: ADNOC’s Al Jaber urges more investment and freedom of navigation, pointing to a second pipeline via Fujairah to bypass the chokepoint. Regional Economy Pressure: UN-linked forecasts and recent reporting keep flagging inflation and growth risks from the Middle East conflict.

Iran-War Fallout on the Move: The Esports World Cup 2026 is being pulled from Saudi Arabia and relocated to Paris (July 6–Aug 23), with organizers citing safety and the “current regional situation.” Aviation & Travel Pressure: easyJet posted a wider H1 loss (£552m) and said Middle East escalation is hitting summer bookings, even as its CEO insists there’s “no disruption” to fuel supply. Industrial Hit from Disruption: Smiths cut guidance, warning Middle East disruption could cap annual growth around 2% (margin still slightly above 20%). Energy Shock Economics: U.S. and global inflation worries keep rising as energy costs feed through; Japan reported a record-low Middle East oil import volume in April, while South Korea’s exports surged on semiconductors despite auto weakness. Diplomacy Under Strain: Trump says Netanyahu will “do whatever I want,” after a tense Iran call; Iran warns any renewed strikes could spread beyond the region. Everyday Cost Concerns: In the Philippines, the trade department says some basic goods could see small price increases (under 10%) as manufacturers seek approvals.

Iran War Diplomacy: Trump says US talks with Iran are in the “final stages,” but warns strikes could resume in “two or three days” if no deal lands. Maritime Pressure: US Marines boarded an Iranian-flagged tanker in the Gulf of Oman and redirected it, as CENTCOM says it has redirected 91 ships to enforce the blockade. Gaza Ceasefire Deadlock: A US-backed “Board of Peace” will urge the UN Security Council to press Hamas to disarm, citing Hamas’ refusal of “verified decommissioning” and a civilian transition. Sanctions Push: The US hit Hamas support networks and Iranian financial/shipping networks, targeting shadow channels and vessels used to evade sanctions. Global Economy Shock: The UN cut its 2026 growth forecast to 2.5% and lifted inflation to 3.9%, blaming the Middle East energy squeeze. Energy Rerouting: Reports say oil is increasingly shipped overland via Syria to reach Mediterranean ports. Regional Power Shift: Xi and Putin agreed to extend the China-Russia treaty, while markets watch whether Iran talks cool the oil-and-yield spiral.

Middle East Ceasefire Push: China’s Xi warned against restarting military operations in the Middle East as he met Russia’s Putin in Beijing, urging a “comprehensive ceasefire” while Trump signals he may resume strikes if talks fail. Hormuz Disruption: Despite the political noise, shipping is still constrained—two supertankers exited the Strait of Hormuz while others waited for weeks, underscoring how the corridor remains volatile. Markets Take the Hit: War-linked inflation fears kept pressure on global assets, with Asian stocks extending losses as bond yields jumped and Brent hovered around $110. US Politics Tighten: The US Senate passed a resolution to curb Trump’s Iran war powers without congressional approval. Travel Fallout: Airlines and tour operators keep adjusting—Jet2 says fuel supply looks “positive,” while British Airways cut summer routes to several Middle East cities. Food Security Pressure: A UN report says acute hunger is worsening and becoming more entrenched, with conflict-driven crises pushing millions deeper into food insecurity.

Iran War Diplomacy: Oil steadied above $100 after Trump said he paused a planned strike on Iran at Gulf allies’ request, while he still warned Tehran has days to reach a deal—keeping markets on edge. Hormuz & Shipping: NATO is weighing a possible escort mission through the Strait of Hormuz as the chokepoint remains disrupted, and economists note prices haven’t spiked as much as feared—yet. G7 Finance: G7 ministers met in Paris, calling for action on trade imbalances and urging the Strait’s reopening, but offering few concrete steps. Energy Costs: Businesses report supply-chain strain and higher fuel/energy costs as top worries; UK household energy bills are set to rise again, tied to the Middle East shock. Regional Fallout: Japan and South Korea pledged closer energy-security cooperation as both rely heavily on Middle East oil. Security & Human Cost: A drone strike hit a Sudan market in West Kordofan, killing 28; separately, Hezbollah-linked reporting claims child recruitment for “martyrdom” messaging.

Iran-US De-escalation Signal: Trump says a planned Iran strike is “on hold” after requests from Gulf leaders (Saudi, UAE, Qatar), while Iran insists nuclear enrichment is “non-negotiable” and warns any new aggression will trigger a “stronger response.” Oil Shock Swings: Markets react fast—oil slips after the pause, but risks remain as Hormuz disruption fears keep prices volatile. Trade Map Redrawn: Companies are racing to reroute exports away from constrained corridors; the UAE is pushing east-coast alternatives via Fujairah as the Hormuz bottleneck reshapes supply chains. UAE Under Pressure: The war is testing the UAE’s “haven” image—exports down, tourism hit, and even key infrastructure faces drone threats. Regional Spillover on Costs: Fuel and inflation pressures spread far beyond the region—Philippines reports inflation at 7.2% tied to Middle East-driven energy costs; UK unemployment ticks up to 5% as firms feel the Iran-war squeeze. Aviation Disruption: Kuwait International Airport remains in phased recovery after drone damage, still far from full capacity.

Strait of Hormuz Shock: Fresh drone attacks in the Gulf and Tehran’s push to formalise control of the Strait have markets on edge again. Oil jumped (Brent around $110) while US bond yields hit fresh highs, feeding inflation fears ahead of Nvidia earnings. Diplomacy vs Escalation: Trump says the US is holding off a planned strike on Iran while talks continue, but warns the military is ready if no deal lands—raising the odds of another flare-up. Shipping Bottleneck: Hormuz remains open only to a trickle of traffic, with analysts warning the disruption is now a long-haul supply problem. Humanitarian Fallout: Somalia is moving closer to catastrophic famine as the Middle East war worsens food, fuel, and aid funding pressures. Regional Security & Tech: Abu Dhabi announced another UFC Fight Night; Interpol shut down a major cyber-fraud network across 13 Arab countries; Dubai Holding is partnering with Microsoft to roll out AI across its businesses.

Iran-US escalation & markets: Trump says the “clock is ticking” for Iran and reports flag a new Situation Room meeting on potential military options, as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively constrained—pushing oil above $111 and dragging gold to a ~7-week low while investors price in higher inflation and tighter rates. Aviation & logistics: Airlines are warning that the Iran war is reshaping demand and fuel costs; Ryanair says fares are under pressure and costs could jump if the fuel spike holds. Energy supply shock: Qatar’s LNG and helium exposure is still rippling after Hormuz disruption and strikes on Ras Laffan, while shipping firms look for partial workarounds. Policy fallout: The UK is set to scrap a fuel duty hike under pressure from Iran-war-driven pump prices; Japan is weighing supplementary budget support as crude lifts costs. Local economic strain: Kenya’s transport strike threat grows as fuel prices hit records, and Sri Lanka’s CPC fuel import bill tops $1bn in four months. Business & investment: Dubai keeps positioning itself as a physical gold trading hub, while QNB Qatar launches a Mastercard debit-card rewards drive.

UAE-Hormuz Flashpoint: A drone strike near Abu Dhabi’s Barakah nuclear plant sparked a fire in an external generator area, with officials saying radiation levels stayed normal—another jolt to a already shaky Iran truce and fresh fears of a wider Gulf escalation. Ceasefire Under Strain: Trump warned Iran the “clock is ticking” as US-Iran talks drag on, while reports say Israel is coordinating with Washington about possible renewed strikes. Strait of Hormuz Politics: House Speaker Mike Johnson tied Hormuz reopening to US gas prices and midterm hopes, as Iran and the US trade threats over shipping. Energy Diversification: The UAE moved to fast-track a new oil pipeline bypassing Hormuz to protect exports through Fujairah. Global Spillovers: Jet-fuel and tourism worries are rising across Europe and the region, and inflation pressures are showing up in multiple countries as oil-linked costs feed through transport and food. Diplomacy Pause: The China-Arab Cooperation Forum was postponed due to regional circumstances, with China stressing ties remain strong.

Middle East War & Shipping: Iran says “enemy” military gear won’t pass through the Strait of Hormuz, while Russia backs China’s push for a permanent ceasefire to reopen the route—keeping pressure on global energy and trade. US-Iran Tensions: Trump posts “It was the calm before the storm,” as reports swirl about possible renewed strikes; meanwhile the USS Gerald R. Ford has returned after a long Middle East deployment. Gulf Security: The UAE reiterates defensive measures after Iranian missile/drone attacks, and Britain deploys a low-cost anti-drone system (APKWS) on RAF Typhoons to counter drone threats. Markets & Inflation: Oil prices stay jumpy and India’s rupee hits a record low above 96 per dollar; CNG prices rise again across Delhi-NCR as Hormuz disruption feeds fuel costs. Industrial Fallout: China halts sulphuric acid exports, threatening battery and fertiliser supply chains. Regional Tech & Energy Projects: Saudi SARCO and China’s Ally Hydrogen Energy plan a green ammonia plant in Jazan, while Saudi doubles down on “digital sovereignty.” Culture & Public Life: Art Dubai opens in Dubai; Nakba Day rallies draw large crowds in London and Australia.

UAE-Iran Standoff: The UAE says its response to Iranian attacks is “defensive” and aimed at protecting sovereignty, civilians and vital infrastructure, detailing it has defended against hundreds of ballistic missiles and thousands of drones since late February. Gulf Diplomacy: Pakistan’s interior minister Mohsin Naqvi is in Tehran to help restart stalled Iran–US peace talks, as Iran also discusses safe passage for commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Ceasefire Under Strain: Israel struck Lebanon even after a truce extension, keeping tensions high despite a fragile ceasefire. Energy Shock: Oil markets remain jumpy: the IMF warns the Iran war is pushing the global economy toward a worse “adverse” scenario, while Brent is back above $109 amid inflation fears. Regional Politics: Iraq says crude output has fallen to about 1.4 million bpd and exports through Hormuz are constrained by tanker insurance. UAE-Russia Links: UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed spoke by phone with Putin, discussing mediation efforts and Middle East impacts on navigation and energy security.

Iran-US Deadlock: Iran’s top diplomat says “lack of trust” is blocking talks to end the war with the US, as Trump dismisses Iran’s latest proposal and aides reportedly prepare options for renewed strikes if diplomacy fails. Strait of Hormuz Pressure: Trump says Xi offered help to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while markets keep reacting to the risk of renewed disruption. Gulf Energy Moves: The UAE is fast-tracking a pipeline expansion to export via Fujairah and bypass Hormuz, aiming to protect supply flows. Regional Politics in Public: Israel-UAE cooperation is being aired more openly than usual amid the Iran war, with the UAE denying Netanyahu’s wartime visit. Sudan Civilian Toll: Drones are driving a surge in civilian deaths in Sudan, with experts warning foreign-supplied tech is worsening the conflict. Business/Finance: Emirates NBD secured all approvals for its $3bn RBL stake, and Abu Dhabi Chamber launched “Member Privileges” with major partners.

Retaliation and escalation: U.S. officials say Saudi Arabia and the UAE carried out unannounced strikes on Iran—reportedly the first time the two Gulf monarchies have directly attacked Iran—raising fears they are moving from “bystanders” to direct combatants. Ceasefire diplomacy: Israel and Lebanon agreed to extend their ceasefire by 45 days, with U.S.-run talks set to restart in early June and a separate security track beginning May 29. BRICS split: BRICS talks in Delhi ended without a joint statement after Iran pressed for condemnation of the U.S.-Israeli war and accused the UAE of involvement; India issued only a chair’s statement. Hormuz pressure and markets: China urged the U.S. and Iran to negotiate a ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz as oil prices climbed and global stocks slid on renewed inflation worries. Energy workarounds: The UAE is fast-tracking a new pipeline to bypass Hormuz, while QatarEnergy has started repairs on two LNG trains hit in earlier attacks. Humanitarian and economic strain: Iraq is reportedly seeking IMF help as the war squeezes budgets, and the Middle East crisis continues to ripple into food and fuel costs.

Middle East Ceasefire Diplomacy: The US tried to extend a shaky Israel–Lebanon ceasefire as talks in Washington wrapped a “productive and positive” first day, with Israel and Lebanon set to reconvene and violence flaring despite the fragile truce. Hormuz Energy Shock: Oil and shipping jitters stayed front and center as Strait of Hormuz disruption fears kept crude elevated, pushing container costs from Korea to the Middle East up for a second straight month and driving fuel-price moves in India (petrol/diesel +Rs 3/litre; CNG +Rs 2/kg). US–China Iran Push: At the Trump–Xi summit, Trump said the two sides “feel very similar” on ending the Iran war and reopening the strait, while China urged a lasting truce and shipping-lane reopening “as soon as possible.” Regional Spillovers: Somalia’s fragile recovery is at risk from the Iran war’s knock-on effects, and Gulf tensions are reshaping security priorities, including NATO summit partner participation. Tech & Health Partnerships: South Korea’s ROKIT Healthcare and Seers inked Middle East deals to expand AI diagnostics and ECG monitoring, while Hong Kong’s HKU advanced saliva-based cancer risk detection trials.